Bearish Markets
Bearish Markets: What is a bearish market
Many traders at the moment wonder if we are in a large correction or bearish markets. Therefore I thought to analyse the markets at the moment to see if they are or not in a bear trend.
The theory say that a correction is 5 to 10% and a bearish trend is 20% or more from the last important top.
Let’s start with our (i.e. Australian) market:
ASX 200 had a top at 5995 on April last year and recently a low (so far) at 4803. That’s the limit for a 20%, so closes below 4800 would make our market a bearish market. What’s interesting though is that the big six companies that make 50% of the the index are in a bear trend as follows:
CBA: High $96.18 Low $70.15 current price $77.30
NAB: High $39.16 Low $26.38 current price $26.82
WBC: High $39.74 Low $28.86 current price $29.88
ANZ: High $37.25 Low $23.08 current price $23.40
BHP: High $39.74 Low $14.06 current price $15.20
TLS: High $6.73 Low $5.06 current price $5.55
That means that the other 50% of the index outperform these six biggest companies.
Looking overseas:
USA: S&P 500 had a high at 2134 and a recent low at 1812. Not in a bear trend as 20% would be to trade under 1718. The Dow is within 20% too, but the Russell 2000 and the Transport index are in bear territory.
Germany: DAX had a high at 12400 and a low at 9240. It is in a bear trend, 20% is 9920.
China: China 300 had a high at 5393 and low at 2532. It is in a bear trend being under 4313 (20%).
In conclusion, seems very likely that we are in bearish markets or very close to one.