Is this the beginning of the 5th wave up?

Since its last high at 5611 the index has retraced to 5565 low, in interval of two days. This is a 25% retrenchment and it keeps the market in a strong position.

Also, on Friday the S&P 500 made a new high on close so I’m assuming tomorrow (i.e. Monday 8th of Aug) the index will take the highs of last two trading days (end of last week), when the ASX 200 index has actually traded in a small range.

The question is though if the index will be able to take out the last high at 5611 level as the 5th wave (it should be this week if so) or it will make a lower high that will be bearish signal.

What worries me is the weekly chart: the candle bar formation shows an outside down bearish bar closed on the lower half – as it can be seen on the weekly chart below.

This is in technical analysis a strong indication of a downside movement.