ASX200  Outlook Week 20-24 June 2016 BREXIT week 

Due to the fact that the ASX200 index is at support level – refer to blue line on my charts – I can foresee two possible scenarios from here:

Scenario 1: Continuation of the upside long term trend

The index is at 50% Fib of the last leg up (wave 5) and on trendline support, so this could be an ABC wave and the trend could continue up – refer to my chart below showing the five waves of the major uptrend and the A-B-C waves down.

The first hurdle though:  the index must take the high from 16th June at 5198 level!

Scenario 2: Continuation on the downtrend

As per the wave count on the below chart, this could be the third leg of this last downtrend. If during one the next four trading sessions the index takes the low at 5141 then there is a good chance for the downtrend to continue.

The most important event of the coming week will be the referendum in UK, so called BREXIT. The results of the poll will bring extremely high volatility to the global markets. The volatility will definitely be contagious and could move Australian market easily 100 points in one direction or another.